March 10th, 2010 at 5:51 pm

Top Ten Insights: Harvard’s New Millennial Poll

Yesterday Harvard University’s Institute of Politics released a poll measuring Millennial opinion on the economy, politics, and social issues; as well as on their personal finances.  Its main takeaway was the generation’s pronounced uncertainty on their personal finances, both current and what they expect in the future: Large majorities were worried about not being able to pay their rent or afford college; less than half believe they’ll end up better off than their parents.

Apart from the battery of questions gauging their economic uncertainty, the report measured some other trends interesting, encapsulating, and ultimately crucial to understanding the generation.  The Top Ten follow:

10. After enjoying unprecented political influence in the 2008 elections, the generation’s progressives have ceded their enthusiasm advantage to its conservatives

‘More than two-in-five (41%) of Republicans are planning on voitng’ in the midterm elections, the poll finds, ‘compared to 35 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Indpenedents’. Moreover, Millennials that voted for John McCain have a nine-point advantage over Obama voters, suggesting political vengeance is a motivates the group as well, according to John Della Volpe, the Institute’s Director of Polling.

9. The majority of the generation, however, remains progressive and–and by a large margin

Acknowledging the enthusiasm gap, EJ Dionne, the presiding commentator at the event marking the poll’s release, noted that ‘if there is good news for conservatives [in the poll] there’s good news for progressives, because the under 30 group is still, broadly speaking, the most progressive generation in the country’.  Specifically, 36% of the generation identifies itself as Democratic, compared to 23% of Republicans.

8. They prioritize reducing the deficit at the expense of economic recovery

‘When offered a choice, a majority (51%) of young adults said they believe that the “President and Congress should worry more about keeping the budget deficit down, even though it will take longer for the economy to recovery”‘, while 45 percent said the President should prioritize helping the economy recover first.  ‘Students are worried that a high deficit today would put that burden on us in the future’, said Pamela Ban, a sophomore at Harvard and a member of the committee that helps shape the poll.

Mirroring older voters, many Millenials are skeptical’ of the effectiveness of macroeconomic stimulants like the Obama administration’s Recovery Act.  ‘Some people think it hasn’t been working as well as we hoped’, Ban said, ’so the idea is to cut our losses instead of exacerbating them’.

7. Their distrust of Congress is growing

Since the Institute’s last poll in November 2009, ‘fewer young adults say they approve of the job performance of Republicans in Congress (32%; November: 35%) and Democrats in Congress (42%; Nobember: 48%).  Over the same time period, the number of 18-29 year-olds self-identifying as Independents has grown six percentage points from 34% to 40%.’

6. They still approve of President Obama’s job performance–and still disapprove of his handling of major policies

‘The President’s overall approval rating is down slightly from 58 percent to 56 percent — while his job approval ratings on five major issues have not changed more than two percentage points.’  Moreover, the decrease doesn’t mark a broader trend of disapproval but rather a sharp drop among Hispanics, Della Volpe says.

5.They are more committed to community service than other generations

Community service of all kinds had fallen steadily for years by the millenium’s end, Della Volpe said, leaving many worried about its future.  But, surprising observers, the trend promptly reversed and has continued to rise.  ‘We [now] see a renewed engagement by young people in this country at the ballot box, as well as in an engagement in community and other forms of public service’, he said.  ‘By the fall of 2008 we found that six in ten young people said they were personally interested in engaging in some form of public service to help the country, nearly half believing that that service could include working for the federal government’.  He said that the attack on September 11th and Hurricane Katrina likely impacted the trend.

4. A new set of political ideologies is forming among them

New Progressives – 17% of  Millenials – This is the heart of the so-called ‘Obama generation’.  New Progressives believe strongly in a social safety net, that the government should intervene to solve climate change, and that the government ’should consider the opinions of other countries when making foreign policy decisions’. (52% Democratic, 43% Independent, 4 % Republican)

New Conservatives – 13% – Dubbed ‘the children of Reagan’s America’, New Conservatives believe orthodox religious ideals should shape public policy; and oppose government intervention to insure poor Americans or curb climate change.  The group is overwhelmingly white and likely– by a nearly twenty-point margin–to live in the South.  (64% Republican, 28% Independent, 6% Democratic)

New Religious – 20% – Citing religious values for their support of social justice-oriented policies–including universal provision of health insurance and other essential services–the New Religious meld progressive economic values with orthodox religious inclinations, including the belief that homosexuality is wrong.  They also hold typically conservative views on foreign policy, believing in the efficacy of preemptive military strikes and use of armed forces to spread democracy.  (Because this emerging group mixes typical belief systems unlike the former two, it’s harder to break down their base of support.  However, the group favored overwhelmingly President Obama’s candidacy, giving 68% of their vote to John McCain’s 25%.)

New Passive – 40% – The largest group of all, New Passives are the least politically active and most ideologically neutral.  Its ideological breakdown is nearly equal between liberals, conservatives, and moderates, identifying with them by 34%, 34%, and 32% respectively. The poll projects that New Passives ‘[are] not likely to play an active role in the 2010 midterm elections’.m

3. Most are worried about keeping their heads above water

Sixty percent of Millennials are ‘concerned about meeting their current bills and obligations’, and near-identical numbers are ‘worried aobut affording a place to live (58%) and affording health care (56%)’.

2. They are worried about dropping out of college for financial reasons–and nearly all are worried about getting a job if they graduate

‘Almost half of all four-year undergraduates (45%) and nearly two-thirds of community college students (64%) are concerened about staying in college’.  After potentially graduating, nearly nine of ten believe ‘it would be “difficult”‘ to get a job; just two years ago 16 percent more believed it would be ‘easy’ to get a job after graduation.

1. A majority are unsure whether they will achieve the ‘American Dream‘

‘Almost half (45%) of 18-29 year-olds report their [financial] situation as bad with only a slight majority (52%) describing theirs as good’.  This pessimism has shaped their view of the future as well: By the time they reach their age, only 46% of respondents said they believe they’ll be better off than their parents; 11% believed they’d be worse off and 24% weren’t sure or declined to respond.

Millennial worries about personal financial difficulties stands to impact fundamentally their view of what government can do to solve problems.  Said Bill Purcell, the Institute’s Director: ‘In our very uncertain economic time, this next generation of leadership in America is uncertain about the efficacy of our political system’, especially given their primacy in helping elect President Obama.

While they continue to support the President by considerable margins, the Millennial generation’s views on economics and government are still being molded by the very crisis they elected him to end.  Whether his policies turn the economy around in time to ease their pain will impact American politics long beyond the crucible in which the the generation’s opinions formed.

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