It has been months since the nation first turned its eye on the Virginia gubernatorial race between Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell. Scheduled to take place on November 3, 2009, this election’s outcome remains anything but clear.

This election is particularly difficult to call because of recent changes in Virginia’s political leanings. Historically Republican, Virginia voted for President Barack Obama, a Democrat, in 2008.

“It is too close to call right now,” said C. Lawrence Evans, Newton Family Professor of Government at the College of William and Mary. “But both candidates are solid with good organization and plenty of funds. The state has been trending slightly Democratic over the past couple of years, so I think that Deeds is the slight favorite. But one misstep by either candidate could tilt the race the other way.”

However, John B. Gilmour of the Department of Government and the Public Policy Program, also at William and Mary, disagrees.

Republican candidate Bob McDonnell

“McDonnell is the likely winner. He is ahead in the polls, has raised more money, and has history on his side. It has been a long time since a Democrat has won a Virginia gubernatorial election the year after a Democrat has won the White House,” Gilmour said.

Despite his prediction, Gilmour says he has seen a dramatic difference in Virginia’s politics.

“There has been a tremendous change in Virginia’s politics in the last ten years. It has shifted from being reliably Republican to a swing state. This is shown by the fact that Democrats have won the two previous gubernatorial elections, hold both Senate seats, won back the state Senate and are threatening to win back the House of Delegates, and won the 2008 presidential vote,” he said.

Evans agreed: “Absolutely, over the past two decades the state has evolved from solidly conservative to moderate. It was possible for a Democrat to win statewide during the 1980s and early 1990s – [Douglas] Wilder and [Mark] Warner are examples – but Republicans seemed to have an advantage. That has changed because of demographic and economic shifts in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Now both parties are very competitive statewide.”

Some have called this race reflective of a larger divide within American politics. Evans noted polarization within the nation, but said most American voters were somewhere in the middle.

Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds

“Electoral outcomes and political fights in Washington have been deeply polarized among partisan lines in recent years, even though most Americans are pretty moderate. I think that disjuncture is reflected in Virginia fairly well. Although Deeds is a centrist, there are still ample differences between the two candidates. Most Virginians, in contrast, are moderates looking for two parties to work together to solve problems,” Evans said.

Yet Gilmour cautioned against drawing conclusions too quickly from the state of Virginia politics, citing New Jersey as an example.

“Elections in both states will largely be determined by circumstances specific to the particular states,” Gilmour said. “For example, in New Jersey, Corzine has long had weak polling numbers, and now corruption has become a bigger issue. Both factors will be to the advantage of Chris Christie, the Republican candidate, who used to be a corruption-fighting U.S. Attorney. If he wins, his victory won’t mean that New Jersey now hates Obama. In Virginia, McDonnell is very conservative, but he is not running a particularly conservative campaign.”

Gilmour added, “People will want to interpret both the Virginia and the New Jersey elections this fall as signifying something about the direction of American politics generally. I think that is a mistake.”

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