Despite losing in the parliamentary election to Livni's (right) Kadima party, Netanyahu has been slated to become Israel's next prime minister

When Israelis headed to the polls, they voted for a party – not a person. They had more than the two basic choices that are usually provided to the American public.  In fact, they had around twenty. And while many of these parties actually ended up receiving seats in the next Knesset (the Israeli parliament) only two of them had a chance of having their party chairperson become the next prime minister: Kadima and Likud. At first blush, one might think that Kadima would be charged with this duty after receiving the most votes. Instead, President Peres asked Likud, who is considered to have more support among the other smaller parties, to form a government with Netanyahu at its helm. Netanyahu now has six weeks to meet with the different parties and form a coalition that represents a majority in parliament (at least 61 of 120 seats).

Now that Netanyahu’s been tasked with forming a government, the real question Israelis are pondering, along with political figures across the globe, is what kind of government he will form. The hawkish former prime minister already has the backing of right-wing parties, but he has shown more interest in forming a unity government that would include Kadima and even the dovish Labor party. Whether he will be able to achieve such a feat is still uncertain, though it doesn’t look promising. Labor chairman Ehud Barak has repeatedly declared that his party would sit in the opposition, and after meeting with Netanyahu, Kadima head Tzipi Livni said her party will as well.

Gil Hoffman, chief political correspondent and analyst for the Jerusalem Post, thinks a rightist government is inevitable. Livni, the wishes of some of her fellow Kadima officials notwithstanding, has no interest in joining a Likud-led government and is “in a position where no one can rebel against her, and she has every right to tell her party what to do,” Hoffman said. Though Hoffman said that such a decision would “not be for the good of the country, the good of the party, or her own good,” he said that Livni deserves respect for leading her party to at least a technical victory – no small feat.

Gideon Levy, a prominent political writer for Haaretz and former spokesman for President Shimon Peres, sees things a little differently. He said that although it is “very hard to tell” what kind of government Netanyahu will form, “chances are bigger that it will be wider, with Kadima.”

What kind of effect would each of these results have? A right wing government, said Hoffman, would “really tie [Netanyahu’s] hands.” Far-right parties such as the National Union, he said, have publicly announced that if any negotiations were to take place with the Palestinians under Netanyahu, they would pull out of the government. This would run contrary to any peace process Israel, the Palestinians and the Obama administration might wish to pursue. While Netanyahu has stated his firm opposition to land concessions, promoting instead an “economic peace” through buildup of Palestinian business and infrastructure, his courting of center and left-of-center parties points to a possible move in a different direction. This could include land concessions and even a Palestinian state, though Netanyahu would “define the word state differently and have many criteria,” Hoffman said.

But pulling in the other direction is Netanyahu’s commitment to the right-wing parties which recommended he lead the next government, including not only National Union but also Shas, whose base is traditional Sephardic Jews; United Torah Judaism, the ultra-Orthodox party; and the Jewish Home. Though a centrist unity government led by Netanyahu is viewed as the will of the people, these considerations, along with the Labor and Kadima’s continued rebuffs of Netanyahu, seem to make it a dicey proposition.

No matter what kind of government is formed, however, much of the onus for Middle East peace efforts will be on the Palestinians and the Obama administration, Hoffman said.

“The Palestinians simply don’t have leadership that can [negotiate a workable peace agreement] right now,” he said. “If there arises a Palestinian leader who is charismatic and can persuade Israelis that they can trust him then there can begin to be hope.”

According to Levy, the real power will lie with Obama and the amount of pressure he places on the next government.

“Everything really depends on Obama, not Netanyahu. If Obama will be decisive, then Netanyahu will have to listen,” he said.

But Levy is unsure how hard Obama will push Netanyahu away from his hard-line stance.

“Obama will restrain Israel but will not lead to major change,” he said. “There may be fewer military actions, fewer settlements built. But I don’t see him [Obama] pushing Israel from the territories.”

In relation to Iran, Levy and Hoffman agree “Israel would never do anything about Iran without the approval of Washington,” Levy said. Though there have been reports in The Telegraph and others news outlets that Israel has been taking some covert action in Iran, any overt moves under Netanyahu would most likely wait for a consensus with the United States.

In general, Netanyahu and Obama are seen to be fairly compatible diplomatic partners, though analysts are not necessarily so optimistic about what that means. “[Their relationship] will start out very nicely, then there will be some tension,” Levy said.

Hoffman is similarly pessimistic about the likelihood of a non-starter government under Netanyahu. “The government will last longer than people think,” he said.

“What will it accomplish? Probably nothing.”

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